[TriLUG] the future of programming (was Piece of History)

[Kevin J.]

This enters in to a much larger discussion about the demise of the US economy, in general; and one which I am poorly equipped to carry forward properly. My personal predictions are that we are going through a normalizing cycle where the wages of American workers will be (are being) brought down, and developing nations wages are trending upwards. US companies have sent just about everything possible overseas and are still working on sending more. China's economy is growing at 11% annually while our economy stays in or near a recession that is only mitigated by ever-deepening debt cycles. 

Of course, we did the same thing to England 100 years ago and they're still around. I just wonder about our collective future when it's predicted that within 30 years we'll have a laptop with more computing power than the entire human race, which will likely be made *and programmed* in China.

Kevin

----- Original Message ----
From: Joseph Mack NA3T <jmack at wm7d.net>
To: Triangle Linux Users Group General Discussion <trilug at trilug.org>
Sent: Sunday, February 24, 2008 4:11:14 PM
Subject: Re: [TriLUG] the future of programming (was Piece of History)


On 
Sun, 
24 
Feb 
2008, 
Kevin 
J. 
wrote:

> 
Personally, 
I 
think 
the 
only 
decent 
programmers 
of 
> 
tomorrow 
will 
come 
from 
the 
kids 
(mostly 
elsewhere 
in 
the 
> 
world) 
who 
grew 
up 
using 
Linux.

This 
is 
either 
an 
important 
or 
irrelevant 
topic, 
depending 
who 
you 
are. 
Having 
started 
programming 
in 
the 
'60s 
I 
count 
myself 
as 
a 
member 
of 
only 
1 
or 
2 
generations 
of 
people 
that 
will 
be 
programmers 
in 
this 
country.

I 
interviewed 
Owen 
Astrachan 
(CS 
Duke 
U) 
for 
this 
presentation

http://www.austintek.com/outsourcing/

where 
he 
said 
that 
no-one 
expected 
CS 
graduates 
to 
be 
programmers 
anymore.

The 
people 
with 
money 
only 
want 
programmers 
to 
write 
programs 
that 
make 
them 
more 
money 
(ie 
we're 
to 
help 
streamline 
business 
practices). 
Thus 
the 
proliferation 
of 
IT 
departments 
concerned 
with 
computerised 
implementation 
of 
standard 
business 
practices, 
and 
not 
CS 
departments 
in 
businesses. 
The 
people 
with 
money 
don't 
know 
which 
end 
of 
the 
computer 
to 
put 
the 
oil 
in 
and 
will 
send 
the 
work 
off-shore 
if 
that's 
what 
it 
takes 
to 
get 
a 
better 
bottom 
line.

There 
isn't 
a 
great 
demand 
for 
good 
programmers. 
There 
has 
always 
been 
a 
demand 
for 
great 
computer 
people 
like 
Turing, 
or 
von 
Neuman, 
the 
latter's 
success 
in 
computing 
didn't 
come 
from 
his 
academic 
skills 
(which 
were 
needed) 
but 
from 
being 
able 
to 
talk 
and 
shake 
money 
out 
of 
congress 
to 
build 
one 
of 
the 
early 
computers.

OSDL 
(where 
Linus 
works) 
is 
a 
very 
competitive 
place. 
Even 
very 
good 
people 
aren't 
good 
enough 
and 
don't 
last 
long. 
You 
have 
a 
better 
chance 
of 
getting 
an 
appointment 
at 
Harvard 
and 
a 
better 
chance 
of 
being 
a 
rock 
star 
than 
of 
being 
one 
of 
these 
people.

Some 
people 
have 
made 
money 
out 
of 
being 
programmers: 
Linus 
bought 
a 
house 
on 
stock 
options 
he 
was 
given 
in 
an 
early 
IPO. 
Andreessen 
of 
netscape 
also 
made 
his 
money 
(AFAIK) 
out 
of 
stock 
options 
or 
some 
sort 
of 
equivalent 
promises. 
Neither 
made 
money 
rather 
for 
the 
worth 
of 
their 
coding, 
but 
only 
for 
their 
names.

I'm 
writing 
this 
e-mail 
on 
pine. 
How 
much 
money 
have 
the 
people 
make 
who 
wrote 
pine? 
If 
you're 
a 
coder, 
then 
you're 
just 
a 
fungible 
assembly 
line 
worker. 
If 
you've 
got 
the 
money, 
then 
you're 
in 
control. 
If 
you 
don't 
have 
ideas, 
then 
there 
is 
no-where 
to 
go. 
The 
big 
problems; 
wars, 
global 
warming, 
over 
population, 
pollution 
and 
loss 
of 
habitat 
for 
our 
co-inhabitants 
of 
the 
earth, 
need 
power 
from 
the 
people 
and 
someone 
who 
sees 
the 
problems 
and 
who 
can 
talk 
and 
convince 
people 
and 
is 
prepared 
to 
lead, 
rather 
than 
just 
be 
elected.

So 
what 
about 
good 
programmers: 
the 
people 
who 
can 
figure 
out 
anything 
and 
code 
it 
up? 
Without 
money 
or 
ideas 
you'll 
just 
be 
doing 
what 
other 
people 
want, 
which 
is 
to 
code 
up 
new 
ideas 
on 
making 
money. 
What 
about 
science 
or 
engineering: 
I've 
looked 
at 
jobs 
on 
the 
VLA 
- 
they 
just 
want 
sysadmins 
- 
the 
convolutions 
etc 
have 
all 
been 
worked 
out 
by 
academics. 
A 
good 
programmer 
will 
get 
a 
job 
but 
not 
a 
lot 
of 
respect.

Joe

-- 
Joseph 
Mack 
NA3T 
EME(B,D), 
FM05lw 
North 
Carolina
jmack 
(at) 
wm7d 
(dot) 
net 
- 
azimuthal 
equidistant 
map
generator 
at 
http://www.wm7d.net/azproj.shtml
Homepage 
http://www.austintek.com/ 
It's 
GNU/Linux!
-- 
TriLUG 
mailing 
list  
  
  
  
: 
http://www.trilug.org/mailman/listinfo/trilug
TriLUG 
Organizational 
FAQ  
: 
http://trilug.org/faq/
TriLUG 
Member 
Services 
FAQ 
: 
http://members.trilug.org/services_faq/