[TriLUG] IPv6 migration resistance

[Michael Kimsal]

But... many of the organizations that are required to support IPv6 (big
network players, data centers, etc) now have a bigger financial incentive
to not do so for a while.  IPv4 addresses are scarce now, and command a
premium.  When you can be charging $x/month/ip, I don't see much immediate
incentive to invest loads more money to upgrade/rollout IPv6 where they're
all 'free' again.  They may never be 'free' like they were before.

My own hunch is that we'll see another couple of years before serious IPv6
efforts, and by that point most people will have gotten used to the idea of
a extra monthly IP fee.  When v6 migrations start to happen, we'll still
see the fees, but they'll be for larger v6 block instead of individual IPs,
and that will be sold to us as a great deal.  "You used to pay $4/month for
*1* IP - *now* you get 256!  And it's only going to be $5/month instead!"
Or "we'll give you 256 addresses *for free* if you just sign this 36month
modem/router contract for $19.95/month! (and pay $300 if you leave early,
oh and you can't move your existing IPs to another data center)".

On Sat, Mar 10, 2012 at 12:13 PM, Igor Partola <igor at igorpartola.com> wrote:

> The business case for IPv6 is that it can now cost you $5/month for an IPv4
> address (http://blog.dreamhosters.com/kbase/index.cgi?area=974). Of course
> big players won't be paying this, but IPv6 is "free" in terms of
> per-address fees. This is the same thing that will happen with electric vs
> gasoline cars: once price per mile of travel equalizes between two energy
> storage types, there will be a massive switch.
>
> I am fairly certain it will not take 10 years: it may be another year or
> two, but at one point we'll see a giant shift where everyone jumps into
> IPv6 because it's cheaper. It will then take 10 years to turn off IPv4 and
> stop supporting it.
>
> Igor
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-- 
Michael Kimsal
http://michaelkimsal.com
919.827.4724