[TriLUG] Long-view Economics

[Yodawatt gigaFusion]

A little casual math for you... 
People may think the economy has been bad the last dozen years or so, but compare to the preceeding two millenia. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_world_product 
In billions adjusted to 1990 dollars: 71830 / 17.50 = 4104x (the end-to-end growth factor from 14 AD to 2012 AD, or 1998 years); 4104^(-1998) = 1.00417277x per year, or roughly 0.417% per year, which gives a doubling time of 167 years. But growth from 2000 AD through 2012 was 1.75123834x over 12 years, for a growth rate of 1.75123834^(-12) = 1.04780091x per year, or roughly 4.78% per year, which gives a doubling time of 14.9 years (about the same time as for doubling energy use).
Our doubling times are thus only 0.08922 times as long as the historical average; our investments do as much in one year as would have taken 11.2 years historically. Yet greedy modern investors want to see the promise of annual return rates of 15% to 30% before they will invest in unproven ideas, which in 14.9 years corresponds to multiplying their money 8-fold and 50-fold, respectively!
[Windows7 calculator in Scientific mode gives answers to 32 decimal digits. And let's one take bizarre roots, like the 1998th root!]
- S ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 
To raise new questions, new possibilities, to regard old 
problems from a new angle, requires creative imagination 
and marks real advance in science. -- Albert Einstein 
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