[TriLUG] Long-view Economics

[Warren Myers]

I don't know what to do with that ... but it was neat to read :)


On Tue, May 21, 2013 at 4:01 PM, Yodawatt gigaFusion
<yodawatt at hotmail.com>wrote:

> A little casual math for you...
> People may think the economy has been bad the last dozen years or so, but
> compare to the preceeding two millenia.
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_world_product
> In billions adjusted to 1990 dollars: 71830 / 17.50 = 4104x (the
> end-to-end growth factor from 14 AD to 2012 AD, or 1998 years);
> 4104^(-1998) = 1.00417277x per year, or roughly 0.417% per year, which
> gives a doubling time of 167 years. But growth from 2000 AD through 2012
> was 1.75123834x over 12 years, for a growth rate of 1.75123834^(-12) =
> 1.04780091x per year, or roughly 4.78% per year, which gives a doubling
> time of 14.9 years (about the same time as for doubling energy use).
> Our doubling times are thus only 0.08922 times as long as the historical
> average; our investments do as much in one year as would have taken 11.2
> years historically. Yet greedy modern investors want to see the promise of
> annual return rates of 15% to 30% before they will invest in unproven
> ideas, which in 14.9 years corresponds to multiplying their money 8-fold
> and 50-fold, respectively!
> [Windows7 calculator in Scientific mode gives answers to 32 decimal
> digits. And let's one take bizarre roots, like the 1998th root!]
> - S ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> To raise new questions, new possibilities, to regard old
> problems from a new angle, requires creative imagination
> and marks real advance in science. -- Albert Einstein
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